Clubs DO perform better after ‘panic buying’ and Nemanja Matic’s move to Chelsea shrewdest deal of all-time
Sun Bets' investigation highlights who have been the best and worse Premier League buys in the January transfer window
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BUYING in January was once thought of as the sign of a manager pressing the panic button.
But, in new research released today, that myth is well and truly busted.
A Sun Bets investigation has proved that doing business in January is the quickest shortcut to success - and shatters the illusion that winter transfer struggle to settle.
It means critics who have written off Arsenal’s moves for Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang and Henrikh Mkhitaryan as a desperate roll of the dice are wide of the mark.
They analysed the biggest 140 players signed by Premier League clubs in the winter window since its introduction in 2004, the impact they had on their side and how long they stayed.
And, as the graphic below shows, the research has revealed:
- Clubs who bought in January DO perform better in the second half of the season
- The second coming of Nemanja Matic at Chelsea in 2014 was the shrewdest major January transfer ever
- Patrice Evra, Branislav Ivanovic and Martin Skrtel prove that January buys can have astonishing longevity
- Clubs can buy their way out of trouble, with 57 per cent of players joining clubs in the bottom three going on to escape relegation
- But Craig Bellamy is the worst-ever January buy
- And there is only one player in Premier League history who did not play a single minute after arriving as a big-name buy in January
It is thought that Pep Guardiola ended his pursuit of Alexis Sanchez because he believed the transfer could become his “Faustino Asprilla moment”.
Asprilla joined Newcastle in February 1996 with the Toon Army nine points clear at the top of the table - only for their title bid to spectacularly collapse.
Yet today’s research shows that Sanchez was likely to have increased City’s firepower - with 60 per cent of attackers improving a club’s goal-per-game ratio.
It also proves that buying in January is more likely than not to succeed, with 61 per cent of clubs seeing an increase in their points won per game after a major January arrival.
That will be good news for Man United, who are thought to be offering a wage package of over £60m for Sanchez on top of his £20m transfer fee.
They have struggled to find a cutting edge in recent months and, while there are of course other factors, the stats show that United fans can expect to see an upturn in performance and results.
Asprilla shook off the title collapse to become a cult icon at St James’ Park.
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But more recent disasters include Bellamy, whose arrival at Man City cause a 0.79 decrease in goals scored per game, and Liverpool’s capture of Fernando Morientes, which saw the Reds’ goal tally fall by 0.7 every game.
Matic, meanwhile, rejoined the Blues in January 2014 for £22m three years after they had sold him back to Benfica.
And he had an immediate impact.
The stats show that Chelsea conceded, on average, one fewer goal every other game after he returned to West London.
It demonstrates the effect that Matic had on Chelsea - and illustrates why Antonio Conte has serious questions to answer for letting him go.
Evra and Nemanja Vidic are two of the most notable January movers, with the pair playing a combined 41,130 Premier League minutes for Man United following their arrival in January 2006.
Branislav Ivanovic and Martin Skrtel join Evra as the three January buys who clocked up over 20,000 minutes in the league for one club.
It demonstrates that a January buy is not an unplanned panic who is more likely to flop and move on than settle and become the spine of a new team.
And it is not just the teams at the top who should be getting their cheque books out.
Of the 21 players to join teams in the relegation zone, 57 per cent helped lift their new clubs to safety - with Papa Souare and Jordon Mutch giving Crystal Palace a boost so dramatic that the club ended up finishing 10th.
Still, there are sufficient misfits lining the path to January glory to warrant managers exercising caution when buying in this winter.
Kevin De Bruyne may be the favourite for this year’s Player of the Year but he managed just 131 minutes after signing for Chelsea in January 2012.
Wilfried Zaha was seen in a Man United shirt for just 30 minutes in the Premier League following his switch from Crystal Palace.
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Yet there is one flop who stands head and shoulders above everybody else.
Brazil international Ricardinho joined Middlesbrough in January 2004 as a World Cup winner.
Yet he left as the only man to sign for a Premier League club in the winter window and not play a single minute of league football.
The midfielder, who retired in 2011 with 23 caps to his name, was signed during a Boro injury crisis - only to drop down the pecking order when the players he was due to replace made a series of miraculous recoveries.
“He’s been unlucky,” said then-boss Steve McClaren.
“He came as cover for injuries and suspensions but they have cleared and the midfield players have done really well.”
