World Cup 2018: Forget betting on England… save your money for Golden Boot winner Harry Kane
Three Lions invariably let us down, but the captain is great value for top scorer thanks to decent group and favourable knockout draw
TIPPING England for anything World Cup related is generally the quickest way to the poorhouse.
If they hold a tournament for the nation which always arrives with its chest puffed out only to head home – usually very early – with its head bowed, then fair enough, the Three Lions are nailed on.
But top dogs in anything worthwhile? Generally speaking you’d get better entertainment seeing how many pieces you could rip your tenner into.
Yet this time, believe it or not, there is a golden bet involving an Englishman. And no, I’ve not started early on the Russian vodka.
In the top scorer markets Harry Kane is a hugely generous 16-1. Fantastic odds when you consider the facts.
Barring an injury he is guaranteed to start, he will be the one out and out goalscorer in Gareth Southgate’s team – and they have a group where he could run riot.
Kane, England’s top scorer in qualifying with five in the six games he played, will fancy his chances of striking in the opener against Tunisia.
He could run riot in the second game against Panama – the World Cup’s equivalent of the Dog and Duck – and finishing first or second above or behind Belgium won’t matter for the next match.
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For that is likely to pitch England against Poland or Columbia – neither of whom have the tightest backlines in the world.
Kane could quite easily have five goals from those games alone. Considering the Golden Boot is generally won by six, that makes him superb value at Betway’s 16-1.
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But don’t restrict your wagers to just one over a tournament which lasts a month.
A German – of course – is usually in the mix, and at the same price as Kane, Timo Werner is worth a flutter.
He is their first out and out, guaranteed deliverer of goals since Miroslav Klose, and while the Germans aren’t in a soft group, they will top it and score goals.
At bigger odds – both 50-1 with Betway - Roberto Firmino and Iago Aspas are each way value. A top four finish for either man will still return a shade over 12-1.
Brazil coach Tite could yet choose Firmino ahead of Gabriel Jesus, and Neymar will surely not be used in every group game given he is still returning to 100 per cent fitness.
And while Aspas was a total flop at Liverpool, he is a scoring machine for Celta Vigo, with a goal every other game.
Julen Lopetegui is a Spain coach who plays with a definite number nine rather than a false one, and Aspas’ ability to spin off the last defender’s shoulder makes him a real threat.
The big gamble there is whether Lopetegui goes with him ahead of Diego Costa or Rodrigo – but at 50-1 it is a risk worth taking.