Horse racing tips – The Betting Spy’s top picks for the 2000 Guineas and 1000 Guineas at Newmarket
The Betting Spy is back with his top tips for the weekend of racing, featuring tips for the first Classics of the season, the 2000 Guineas and 1000 Guineas at Newmarket.
THERE is an El of a good bet in the 2,000 Guineas.
ELARQAM (3.35, Newmarket) ticks all the boxes. The colt is bred for the job, by the magnificent Frankel out of Attraction, who won the 2004 1,000 Guineas for Mark Johnston.
It is clear the trainer holds Elarqam in equally high regard as he has stated how nervous he was when the colt made his second appearance in the Group 3 Tattersalls Stakes at Newmarket in September. He need not have been. Elarqam stormed home beating the useful Tip Two Win very easily.
That proven course form counts for plenty as not every horse handles this undulating track.
Elarqam's form is not Classic standard - yet - but there is much more to come and his preparation has reportedly gone smoothly.
The favourite is Gustav Klimt, one of three runners for Classic king Aidan O'Brien, who has won the race eight times. The O'Brien blueprint is usually to head straight to Newmarket without taking in a trial but he broke with tradition and gave Gustav Klimt a run at Leopradstown last month.
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He won well and his two-year-old form, which included a win on his final start in the Superlative Stakes last July, is strong. He overcame being hampered there and is clearly a big danger, as is stablemate Saxon Warrior, who battled back after being headed by Roaring Lion to win Doncaster's Group 1 Racing Post Trophy in October.
Roaring Lion is hard to fancy after disappointing on his reappearance in the Craven Stakes last month but the winner that day, Masar, could be a major player. He made all for an easy win but may not get an easy lead here.
James Garfield beat Expert Eye narrowly (Raid fourth) in the Greenham but that form does not look good enough although hard-pulling Expert Eye would be a danger if he could recapture his best two-year-old form. But that is a big 'if'.
It is nine years since a three-year-old won the Palace House Stakes (2.20) but that does not put me off HAVANA GREY. Few try, and very few with such good form as Karl Burke's grey.
He was just about the best juvenile sprinter around last year, beating Wednesday's impressive Ascot winner Invincible Army easily in Goodwood's Molecomb Stakes.
The opposition is made up of mostly useful but exposed Listed grade sprinters of whom Mabs Cross is probably the only one with the potential to improve enough to threaten Havana Grey.
GALLOWAY HILLS (4.10) caught the eye when staying on to be second at the Craven meeting and can go one better here.
He did not get the best of runs before powering up the hill to grab the runner-up spot. That was his turf debut and he is likely to improve further. The handicapper has generously left him on the same mark and he looks sure to go close.
OLD PERSIAN (4.45) is one to follow. He won the 1m2f handicap for three-year-olds over course and distance at last month's meeting that almost always produces Group class horses.
Like many of his stablemates he is bred in the purple and he can take this before stepping into pattern company at Royal Ascot.
The Betting Spy's top tips for Guineas weekend
Saturday May 5
- 2.20 Newmarket - Havana Grey: 'Few three-year-olds have such form good enough to attempt this but Karl Burke's sprinter does'
- 3.05 Wetherby - Humbert: 'Can get a well deserved win after two blinding efforts in defeat'
- 3.15 Goodwood - Shamshon: 'Can make amends for an unlucky defeat at Epsom'
- 3.35 Newmarket - Elarqam: 'Bred for the job, proven on the course and held in high regard'
- 4.10 Newmarket - Galloway Hills: 'Caught the eye when staying on to be second at the Craven meeting'
- 4.45 Newmarket - Old Persian: 'Looks one to follow after winning a usually hot handicap last month'
Sunday May 6
- 3.35 Newmarket - Laurens: 'Fillies' Mile winner has a rock-solid form chance and is good value each-way'
At Goodwood SHAMSHON (3.15) can make amends for an unlucky defeat at Epsom last Wednesday. He got out of a pocket just too late there but almost got up, being only a head down at the line.
He has a great chance to make amends and is undeniably well weighted, running off a 7lb lower mark than when winning at Newmarket last summer.
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HUMBERT can get a well-deserved win in the Hunt Cup at Wetherby (3.05). Hugo Palmer's four-year-old had a fine winter on the sand and has continued to progress, running two blinders to be second in Doncaster's Lincoln consolation race and again in Newbury's Spring Cup.
He has been cranked up another 3lb but this looks a shade easier and his stable are in terrific form.
In Sunday's 1,000 Guineas (3.35 Newmarket) most attention has been focused on Happily and I Can Fly for Aidan O'Brien plus the Godolphin duo, Soliloquy and Wild Illusion.
All four have solid claims but so too does Karl Burke's LAURENS.
She was a Group 1 winner at two, landing the Fillies' Mile over the Guineas course and distance. She has a rock-solid form chance and is good value at an each-way price.
Looking further ahead PROSCHEMA is one to watch in the Chester Vase on Wednesday. He could turn out to be Tom Dascombe's best since Brown Panther and was very impressive last time out at Haydock.
He is proven over a mile and a half and could be a shade of value against the Aidan O'Brien squad.