Horse racing tips: Epsom Derby trends – we help you find the winner of the Derby live on ITV

4.30 EPSOM: Derby Stakes

IT Haz to be Dermot Weld’s Derby. His HAZAPOUR ticks most of the boxes and is an excellent price.

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There are plenty of strong trends for the Derby and the one that says your fancy must have run no more than twice this season is particularly powerful.

For that reason, we will overlook Masar and the fancied Roaring Lion, who have both been to the well three times already this term.

Looking at the official ratings, likely pacemaker Zabriskie and Sevenna Star are trying to be the lowest rated winner of the Derby in the past decade.

You would think it’s a plus to have some experience of Epsom but that hasn’t been the case so Dee Ex Bee has a negative next to its name.

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It’s the same story with horses that have already won over the 1m4f distance, so we will overlook the charms of Young Rascal.

Past Derby winners have gotten away with a modest debut effort before but they must have finished in the first three on all other runs. So Kew Gardens’ fourth is a big minus.

Last year’s shock winner Wings Of Eagles was ending a long run of fancied winners and he was the first outside the first three in the market all decade.

So The Pentagon and Knight To Behold have a mountain to climb from their double-figure odds while Delano Roosevelt is likely to be outside the first three in the betting too.

Trends tip for the Derby

4.30 Epsom - Hazapour: 'Fits all the trends!'

That leaves us with two strong trends contenders in Saxon Warrior and HAZAPOUR.

While Aidan O’Brien has a fantastic record with four winners in the past decade, he fired more than 40 bullets for that haul and two wins came from less fancied Ballydoyle runners.

Dermot Weld has had three Derby runners in the same timeframe, with a win and a place. Hazapour can add to his excellent record.