Epsom Derby: Saxon Warrior the one to beat reports 32Red ambassador Jamie Spencer in his latest column
Jamie Spencer talks through the Derby on Saturday and gives you his opinion on the race
I’LL be watching the Derby from Doncaster and I expect to see Saxon Warrior win.
If there’s any more rain and the ground is soft it would be worry but he only has himself to beat in many ways.
He’s not bred for soft ground but he may be so superior he can handle it anyway. He’s drawn one, which hasn’t got a good record but statistics are there to be broken.
The horse in stall one has no one on his inside so when they come out of the gate he’s enticed to go left. That’s not ideal as you come to a right-hand turn very quickly.
Saxon Warrior is an experienced enough horse. I find it hard to believe he’ll be beaten because of the draw — soft ground is more of a worry.
It’s a steep early climb and it’s tough on the horses. You need to get a good position then sit to fill your horse up.
DERBY DAY LIVE Get all the latest odds, tips, news and results with our live Epsom blog
But it is still a mile and a half from start to end so you’ve got to ration your stamina. You need a horse who can travel well, then you handle the track. If your horse lacks pace that spells trouble.
Ryan Moore rides the same race every year. He takes his time then comes down the outside from the three pole.
I think he’ll ride Saxon Warrior with loads of confidence – let everyone get on with it. He’s on a class horse so he’ll be one of the last to challenge as he won’t want to expose his stamina too early.
Delano Roosevelt is bred to stay and should like the ground. He could be the surprise package. It’s no surprise Aidan keeps winning it. When the matings are made it’s to win the Derby: the stallion, the mare and Aidan is the final piece of the jigsaw.
At Epsom the only race you really want to ride in is the Derby. If you don’t have a good ride in it you might as well go elsewhere.
And I’ve got six at Doncaster. I start with HIGH WELLS (1.20). He had a wind op before his last run. That helps as it gives them more confidence to breathe.
He’s right up in trip again and that will suit him. He has a good each-way chance. I sat on BUBBELAH (2.30) on Wednesday when he had a blow out over six furlongs.
He felt like a progressive colt. He’ll improve but I expect him to run a decent race.
Latest in Horse Racing
WHITE CHOCOLATE (3.05) finished second here a couple of weeks ago. She’s in good form and she must go there with a good chance.
LISHEEN CASTLE (3.40) was well beaten by Proschema five weeks ago so he has ground to make up. It was testing that day — I’ll be hoping the rain stays away.
NAKHAYTAK (4.50) had one race in Saudi Arabia. It’s an unorthodox route, we’ll just have to see how he goes.
WILSON (5.25) looks to be in the grip of the handicapper but Luca Cumani has been happy with his gallops.