Northumberland Plate runners and tips: Your top pinstickers’ guide to the big handicap at Newcastle
PUT it all on Red in the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle (2.05).
Ed Dunlop’s Amazing Red couldn’t have been any more impressive when winning over 1m6f at Newmarket last time. He’s got the staying power for this longer trip and comes from a handy single-figure stall.
Withhold has been the massive gamble of the race and he could easily follow up his Cesarewitch win. A 12lb rise in the weights shouldn’t stop him but his long layoff is a slight worry.
Lagostovegas was impressive when scoring at Royal Ascot last week and must be right in the picture again for master trainer Willie Mullins.
Higher Power won this 12 months ago and it would be no shock to see him figure again.
MISSING LADY Wesley Ward still puzzled by Lady Aurelia's no show in King's Stand
HIGHER POWER 4/5
Power could surge again. Dropping into a handicap for the first time since winning this last year. He’s only 1lb higher in the weights now and trainer James Fanshawe has his horses in excellent nick. We know he likes the track and stays so no worries there. Has a fair draw and looks capable of hitting the frame this time around.
TIME TO STUDY 2
Time’s run out. Has run some good races at staying level, including when third in the Group 3 Sagaro Stakes at Ascot last month. Found the drop back to 1m4f beyond him when held at York last time. His last handicap outing came in the Chester Cup when he was a solid fifth but he’s up the weights since then so need more.
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NAKEETA 3
He’s got the Nak. Consistent performer at this level and his poor run in the Chester Cup last time is best forgotten as he looked rusty and tried to come from much too far back. Finished last season finishing fifth in the Melbourne Cup after winning no less than the Ebor at York. Has class but hasn’t won beyond 1m6f.
PRINCE OF ARRAN 2
Prince won’t reign. Globetrotter who won a decent handicap in Dubai over this trip in Februay before struggling in Group races. Was a good third in a hot race in America last time after a fair effort in the Chester Cup. Stays well but looks hampered by a high draw today and looks to be playing for a place.
WATERSMEET 2
Waters run dry. Didn’t last out the 2m2f of the Chester Cup last time but has proven himself over this distance, including when winning on the all-weather three times this winter. Is 7lb higher today than that effort around the Roodee which means he has a fair bit of improvement to find.
ON TO VICTORY 2
Victory’s not a winner. Is trying 2m for the first time but shapes like a stayer with several good efforts over 1m6f. Found Group 2 level beyond him when last in the Yorkshire Cup last time and it’s a concern that his best form has come with cut in the ground. This surface is more suited to horses who like it faster on turf.
TOP TUG 2
Tug won’t pull it off. Comes from stall 20 which should be difficult and seven seems a grand age to be trying 2m on the Flat for the first time. He’s a decent hurdler though so there’s every chance he will stay and he wasn’t beaten far at Royal Ascot last time out. He’s off the same mark today but has a bit to prove.
LORD GEORGE 3
Lord’s in the house. Consistent all-weather performer who was beaten on the nod for a big race at Lingfield on Good Friday. That was a big improvement on his previous form and he’s got more to give in staying races. Has the problem of stall 18 to overcome but we know he handles the surface and stays so should run well.
ARCH VILLAIN 1
Villain won’t nick it. Is coming back from nine months off but was a decent stayer before his break, finishing fourth in the Ebor off this mark at his best. He was 18th in this two years ago and is surely entitled to need this after such a long break. Would be a surprise if he could figure despite being well drawn.
CLEVER COOKIE 1
Cookie’s got to crumble. Veteran with a losing run dating back to May 2016 and he’s been hit and miss this season. His best run probably came when sixth in the Yorkshire Cup but he never looked like winning that. Finished ninth in this 12 months ago and should be around that position again.
CURBYOURENTHUSIASM 2
Curb’s on the edge. Didn’t fire dropped back to 1m4f in a Goodwood Listed contest last time after earlier going close over this trip at Kempton in April. He’s gone up the weights since then and likes to come with a late run so will need plenty of luck. Hasn’t won over this far before either.
NATURAL SCENERY 3
Scenery’s a Natural. Did well in big handicaps last season, with a second in this and third in the Ebor. She’s 2lb lower in the weights than 12 months ago and never runs a bad race at Newcastle. The draw could have been a little kinder but she’s gone well fresh before and has place prospects.
SOLDIER IN ACTION 2
Soldier’s misfiring. Looked a potential Cup horse last season with good wins at Goodwood and Kempton but has not got going so far this season. Is gradually coming down the weights but ran flat at Newmarket last time after a poor effort at Epsom where he usually goes well. Chance at his best but can’t be relied on.
ISLAND BRAVE 2
Island’s adrift. Has lots of good form over shorter trips, including when winning here in March over 1m4f. Went well on his only other run over this distance and clocked a turf personal best at York last time. Taking a fair step up in class here and has to prove his stamina in this hot company.
WITHHOLD 4
Withhold could deliver. Has been backed off the boards all week and has form credentials after winning the Cesarewitch last season. He hasn’t run since then and a 12lb rise in the weights gives him some improving to do but the vibes from trainer Roger Charlton have been positive and his draw should be ok in 11. Has few miles on the clock for a stayer and should have more to give.
SAND STORMER Withhold heads a top class field of twenty for the Northumberland Plate
BYRON FLYER 3
Flyer ready for take-off. Forget his poor last run as his rider — Ryan Moore of all people — lost an iron. He had earlier run well over this trip when second at Haydock and is only 2lb higher in the weights today. The worry is that he hasn’t won for 18 months but he’s usually thereabouts and could easily sneak into the places.
LAGOSTOVEGAS 4
Vegas could hit jackpot. Won the 2m4f Ascot Stakes in style at the Royal meeting and has just a 5lb penalty for that today. Is a certain stayer who should handle the surface as fast ground suits. She’s run only four times on the Flat for Willie Mullins and has two wins and a placing at Listed level and in the Cesarewitch behind Withhold. She’s well drawn and looks a major player.
AMAZING RED 5
Take it as Red. Lived up to his name when destroying a decent field at Newmarket last time over 1m6f and he’s proven over this trip from a win at Kempton in May. That underlines his liking for the all-weather and he looks ahead of the handicapper under a 5lb penalty. He’s still improving as a stayer and could upset the favourite.
SIR CHAUVELIN 3
Not fair for Sir. Got no luck in running when second in Duke Of Edinburgh at Royal Ascot last time and it could be the same story from a wide draw here. That was still a cracking effort and he shapes as though this longer trip will be fine — he stays it over hurdles. He’s off the same mark as that Ascot run, handles this track and has enough talent to take a hand.
CAYIRLI 1
Cay won’t have a say. Was hammered in the Chester Cup on the back of a good win on the all-weather at Kempton over this trip. That was following 18 months off so he could have more to give but he won’t find this much easier than his spin around the Roodee so needs to improve plenty.