Horse racing tips: Northumberland Plate trends – we help you find the winner of the race live on ITV
We narrow down the field to help you pick the winner of the race live on ITV this Saturday at Newcastle
2.05 NEWCASTLE: Northumberland Plate
HIGHER POWER can grab more glory in Newcastle’s big race. The past two runnings of this have been on the all-weather but it doesn’t seem to have made any major difference to most trends.
The first pointer is to cross out all horses that weren’t in the first
four last time out, as nine of the past 10 winners managed that.
So cheerio to Nakeeta, Watersmeet, On To Victory, Top Tug, Arch Villain, Clever Cookie, Curbyourenthusiasm, Natural Scenery, Soldier In Action, Island Brave, Byron Flyer and Cayirli.
All of the past 10 Plate winners were returning to the track within 52 days. That puts a major question mark over plunge horse Withhold who was last seen almost nine months ago.
FIRST MATE Royal Ascot winner Merchant Navy retired to pursue stallion career
Given that favourites don’t have the strongest record, it puts a doubt about him winning this.
It’s also a negative for Lord George as the field is quickly reduced to just six from the original 20.
Despite being run over 2m, the draw has an impact on the Plate. Only one horse has managed to win from a wider stall than Sir Chauvelin and Prince Of Arran occupy today so that means they are overlooked.
It may only have been run on the artificial surface twice but both winners had already scored on the all-weather, so that is a worry for fans of Lagostovegas.
That said, she was highly impressive in the Ascot Stakes last time and we don’t know that she won’t handle this ground.
That leaves us with a shortlist of three — Higher Power, Time To Study and Amazing Red.
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Time To Study would be the joint longest priced winner of this in the past decade. While that’s not to say he won’t run well, his lack of a win beyond 1m6f is a concern as stamina is a major asset in a race that’s sure to be run at a right lick.
So we are down to last year’s winner and rising staying star Amazing Red.
They are both fair prices but, given that he has already proven himself in the race and is carrying just 1lb more than 12 months ago, HIGHER POWER gets the nod.