Irish Champions Weekend: Callum Jamieson seeks out the antepost value for the racing at the Curragh and Leopardstown
ONE thing’s for sure, the Irish Champion Stakes is going to cut up.
Roaring Lion is the deserving favourite and it’s hard to look past him.
But out of the runners following behind in the betting one is worth shouting about at big odds.
VERBAL DEXTERITY has been aimed at this all summer long. Not many in the race can say that.
Those in the know at the Curragh were quick to report that he looked liked he enjoyed his lengthy spell off the track.
He was clearly going to benefit from any outing that day and should be a lot trimmer come Leopardstown.
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Yet he was a big eyecatcher under a relaxed ride from Kevin Manning, and that should set him up perfectly for this monster Group 1.
At odds of 25-1, he looks too good of a bet to turn down.
His National Stakes win, on this weekend last season, has played out very nicely indeed.
Rostropovich has been competitive in top races, Beckford ran well at the Breeders’ Cup and the rest were beaten out of sight.
He was a tad disappointing in the Racing Post Trophy. But things didn’t go his way and he was still only beaten just over three lengths by Saxon Warrior and Roaring Lion.
While Roaring Lion is very much the one to beat - having progressed all summer - as mentioned, the field is likely to cut up as connections seek easier races.
I can’t see Jim Bolger’s pride and joy not hitting the board.
Cracksman won’t be seen here and I don’t fear much that could line up for Aidan O’Brien.
Saxon Warrior is not the horse he was and he could swerve this in favour of a trip abroad or even head straight to Ascot.
Poet’s Word is to skip the race but is still lazily priced up by a few and stablemate Crystal Ocean is set to run at Kempton today, plus has had a busy summer so unlikely to be seen a week later.
Study Of Man is a live contender - if he lines up. But the Arc must surely be a much juicier carrot for connections.
Apart from that, I cannot see much else taking their chance. And nothing that would scare Jim Bolger anyway.
Irish Champions Antepost Picks
Irish Champions Stakes - Verbal Dexterity (25-1) 1pt, EW
Flying Five - Take Cover (25-1) 0.5pts, EW
Irish St Leger - Flag Of Honour (5-2) 1pts, win
Matron Stakes - Making Light (16-1) 0.5 pts, EW
The shorties are falling like flies in the Flying Five.
In recent days Battaash, Mabs Cross and Speak In Colours have all but ruled themselves out of contention.
Battaash is off to France with Mabs and Speak In Colours is set to run in the Sprint Cup at Haydock today.
Blue Point is likely to have a large fan club, but away from Ascot I can leave him alone.
I’ll take him on with the evergreen Take Cover.
The 11-year-old remains in the form of his life and followed up a solid Goodwood run behind Battaash with another win in the Beverley Bullet in a tip-top time.
Between this he ran well enough in the Nunthorpe without being much of a factor.
But trainer David Griffiths was still pleased and you can put a line through that no problem.
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Connections have said he’s likely to be retired before the season is out and they’d love to be able to take him out on a high.
This Group 1 would be a much deserved prize and you’d have to think they’d take this in over a Group 3 at Newbury.
He was third in this in 2015, when just not getting home. But that was on a soft surface and if the ground stays as it should he might be hard to peg back.
He’s as speedy as they come and while the draw will be key to him on the day - ideally away from horses such as Caspian Prince - at the current odds I think he represents the best value.
The Irish St Leger isn’t shaping up to be a classic renewal.
With the sounds around Order Of St George not sweet from the O’Brien yard it looks unlikely he’ll run at the Curragh.
While the price has already collapsed I’d be quite confident Flag Of Honour will step into George’s shoes and be much shorter on the day.
I can’t see much crossing the sea to challenge, and if they do I’d be surprised of they’re up to the challenge of the home team.
Weekender would have been interesting but has targets elsewhere.
The British challenge could be led by Best Solution but it would be a surprise to see him show up in Ireland.
That leaves you with horses such as Red Verdon, Algometer and the out of sorts Desert Skyline.
You’d have to think Flag Of Honour has the ability to see those off, especially getting 8lbs off those mentioned.
I think the field will be fairly small. Many wouldn’t have targeted the race anyway due to the dominance of Order Of St George and I see little changing now with Flag Of Honour now filling that role.
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In the Matron Stakes, Alpha Centauri will take all the beating and there’s almost no point taking her on.
She’s an intended runner and the star horse of the summer so far.
Saying that, there’s still each way money to play for and I like Dermot Weld’s Making Light.
She announced herself on the scene with a taking Listed win at Cork, beating Pincheck by a cosy three lengths.
Pincheck has subsequently struck at Group level and there’s a lot to suggest there’s plenty more to come from Dermot Weld’s lightly-raced filly.
A small each way play on her at 16-1 is advised, with many above her in the market not likely to show up.
Laurens makes appeal - especially as she’s been aimed at the race - but I’m not sure she’ll be suited by the drop to a mile, especially if the ground stays quick. She's also had a testing season already.
Aidan O’Brien is sure to have a couple to take the red hot Alpha Centauri on.
But whatever he sends from this crop is unlikely to be able to live with her, and with too much uncertainty surrounding his entries his fillies are best left alone.