What happens if England or Belgium lose on purpose, and is there a punishment for deliberately getting booked at the World Cup?
Suspicion could be in the air tonight in Kaliningrad when England play Belgium with a loss for either side ensuring an easier route through the knockout stages
LOSING A game of football and benefitting from it seems paradoxical.
But that is the unusual scenario that England or Belgium - already assured a last-16 spot - could find themselves in after they face-off tonight, with a first-place and second-place finish in Group G posing very different routes to the final.
Why could it be beneficial for England or Belgium to lose on purpose?
England and Belgium are already assured of a place in the knockout stages whatever happens when the two meet tonight in Kaliningrad.
But the final standing of each team in Group G will have a significant impact on the permutations of their respective routes through the knockout stages to the final.
Such permutations were shaken up yesterday when pre-tournament favourites and World Cup holders Germany dramatically crashed out in the first round.
A second place finish for either England or Belgium would group them with Spain, Russia, Croatia, Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland, and either Japan, Senegal or Colombia in the last-16.
With the exception of Spain, that is a mere shadow of the other side of the draw, consisting of Uruguay, Portugal, France, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and either Japan, Senegal or Colombia; with whom first-place in Group G would be grouped.
The Three Lions have lost to Brazil, Uruguay, Portugal, France and Argentina at major tournaments in the past 20 years.
Therefore, losing tonight seems beneficial for England or Belgium in respect to the contrasting routes to the final.
Indeed, sports data company Gracenote suggests Southgate's side have a 12% chance of being in the final on July 15 if they finish top of Group G; whereas this likelihood increases to 18% if England finish second and end up categorised alongside the likes of Russia and Switzerland in the seemingly easier pathway.
How could England or Belgium deliberately secure a second place finish in Group G?
England and Belgium are currently level on points, goals scored, goals conceded and head-to-head record - a draw tonight would not change that.
In the case of a draw, it would then fall to the number of yellow and red cards to decide who tops Group G.
A yellow or red card in the final few minutes could well be decisive in Kaliningrad.
As it stands, England have one less yellow card than Belgium.
If the card count is also level, lots will be drawn to decide the group winner.
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What happens if England or Belgium lose on purpose?
Section 12 of the Regulations of the tournament state that players should behave in the "spirit of fair play".
While Section 53 states: “The FIFA Organising Committee shall issue any instructions necessitated by special circumstances that may arise in Russia related to the 2018 FIFA World Cup. These instructions shall form an integral part of these Regulations.”
It would be difficult for FIFA to step in and try to sanction either England or Belgium for losing on purpose after they did nothing about the mutual non-aggression pact between Denmark and France on Tuesday.
France and Denmark knew they were both advancing into the knockout stages of the tournament before they took to the field for their final Group C game and so agreed to play to avoid injury.
Any potential race to the bottom tonight would differ from the infamous tactics of Germany and Austria in 1982, who colluded in Gijon to ensure a 1-0 German win that ensured both went through on goal difference at the expense of Algeria.
England and Belgium have both already qualified, so if either team were to deliberately lose it would effectively be a victimless crime.
In any case, Gareth Southgate insists that the Three Lions will play to win: "We want to win the game."
"That would mean we top the group and we would go into whatever game we go into moving forward."
He even joked that he may have to headbutt Belgium coach Roberto Martinez: "If I go and headbutt Roberto in the last five minutes, then you'll know that maybe we're taking a different approach to getting through!"
Southgate also provided us with a dose of pragmatism: "We've not won a knockout game since 2006." "Why we are starting to plot which would be a better venue for our semi-final is beyond me, really."
Is there a punishment for deliberately getting booked at the World Cup?
If a player is adjudged to have deliberately tried to get a yellow card, they can receive a ban for a number of matches.
This happened to Real Madrid star Dani Carvajal last year when the 90th-minute yellow card he picked up in a Champions League clash with Apoel Nicosia was declared by UEFA to have been deliberately acquired so that he would be banned for Madrid's final group stage game.
Real Madrid had already secured progression into the knockout stages, prompting suspicion that Carvajal pre-empted a ban to be in effect for a match with little bearing on Madrid by delaying the taking of a throw-in.
The Spaniard was subsequently charged with "receiving a yellow card on purpose" and handed a two-match ban.
Leaving one on the opposition keeper as he comes to collect a cross or cynically swiping at an onrushing player to halt a counter-attack are common sights in football, and often deserving of a yellow card.
If England or Belgium decide to rack up the card count, it would be near impossible to adjudge definitively whether a mistimed tackle or a Harry Kane off-target shot was done to manufacture a second-place finish - unless the entire match descended into WWE-style take-downs, delayed throw-ins, and punting the ball away in 'frustration'.
In the latter case, FIFA would be pressured to act like UEFA did against Carvajal.
Should England play to lose?
While a second-place finish in Group G would see England or Belgium face a seemingly smoother ride through the knockouts, a team should never play a football match with the aim of losing.
Such a motivation dangerously undermines the integrity, quality and entertainment of football.
Defeat to Belgium tonight - whether manipulated or by fair play - would disrupt the momentum and optimism England have gained from wins over Tunisia and Panama.
Momentum in short-term tournaments such as the World Cup should not be overlooked.
Indeed, a characteristic common to successful teams in tournaments has been momentum and confidence, seen most recently in the 2014 World Cup when Costa Rica delighted every neutral fan with their surprise run to the quarter-finals.
The game against Belgium will provide England with their toughest test yet and it is one which Southgate should not throw with the potential for constructive feedback to enlighten their approach to equally-strong opponents in the knockout stages.
And it seems at the moment that not even playing to lose could keep current top scorer Harry Kane from finding the net.