World Cup 2018: Russia vs Spain, team news, prediction and preview as the hosts take on the under performing Spaniards
Russian boss Stanislav Cherchesov goes head-to-head with Fernando Hierro for a place in the quarter-final
RUSSIA arrived at their own World Cup fearing humiliation, while Spain flew in with genuine confidence of regaining their crown as world champions - yet much has changed in both camps over the past two and a half weeks.
While the hosts, who began as the lowest-ranked side in the tournament, cruised into the last 16 with crushing victories over Saudi Arabia and Egypt, Spain were thrown into chaos by the sacking of boss Julen Lopetegui on the eve of the big kick-off.
With Fernando Hierro in caretaker charge, they played some brilliant football only to be denied victory by a Cristiano Ronaldo hat-trick. Since then they struggled to beat Iran and needed a late equaliser against Morocco to top Group A.
The nation expects: Despite those two excellent victories instilling a feelgood factor in the host nation, the Russians are realistic enough to know their men are clear underdogs in their last-16 tie.
This is a shot to nothing for a team which has already fulfilled its ambition of getting out of the group stage.
Even though preparations were thrown into such disarray by Lopetegui’s appointment by Real Madrid, the Spanish know they have the most talented squad in their half of the draw and fully expect to be back at the Luzhniki for the final two weeks later.
Key battles/Star men: David De Gea’s iffy form has been a major talking point in the Spanish camp and, although Fernando Hierro has kept faith in him, the Manchester United player will remain under scrutiny.
Several Russians have stepped up during the group stage - with Villarreal winger Denis Cheryshev netting three goals, while the pacy and skilful 22-year-old midfielder Aleksandr Golovin has been a break-through star.
Weakest links: De Gea is being questioned but Spain have few, if any, obvious weaknesses.
Despite plenty of positivity at this World Cup, Russia remain an old team who nevertheless lack experience on the game’s biggest stages.
Likely line-ups and Team Talk: Russia coach Stanislav Cherchesov knows his side are underdogs but is urging them to seize the day, with the vast majority of an 80,000 crowd cheering them on.
Probable team: Igor Akinfeev; Mario Fernandes, Sergey Ignasevich, Ilya Kutepov, Yuri Zhirkov; Yury Gazinskiy, Roman Zobnin; Aleksandr Samedov, Aleksdandr Golovin, Denis Cheryschev; Artem Dyzuba
Fernando Hierro will surely be of the belief that his side’s greater qualities will see them though - and will be keen that his in-form centre forward Diego Costa can see plenty of the ball and add to his three tournament goals.
Probable team: David De Gea; Dani Carvajal, Gerard Pique, Sergio Ramos, Jordi Alba; Sergio Busquets, Thiago Alcantara; David Silva, Isco, Andres Iniesta; Diego Costa.
Prem Tstar in the making: Chelsea are in talks with CSKA Moscow over the signing of £27milion-rated Aleksandr Golovin. The attacking midfielder is a long-term Blues target but his World Cup form has compelled Roman Abramovich to move fast for his fellow Russian.
Russia were the lowest ranked nation in the tournament, no wins in seven games, a laughing stock among pundits and tipped to embarrass their country this summer.
But Stanislav Cherchesov's side have surpassed all expectations to qualify from Group A with a game to spare with eight goals in wins against Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
Despite topping Group B, Fernando Hierro's side with a galaxy of superstars have flattered to deceive and have looked anything but secure in defence.
Russia will smell blood, but the manner of defeat to Uruguay will be concerning as Spain will hope sudden-death football will spark them into life.
Best bet: Spain have not been full of goals so far, But are offering 16/1 for the Atletico Madrid hitman Diego Costa to bag a goal and Spain to beat the hosts 1-0.
Opta Stats:
• Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, Russia have never beaten Spain (D2 L4).
• Their last encounter ended 3-3 in a friendly back in November 2017.
• Spain have scored 10 goals in their last three games against Russia (7 in two games at Euro 2008, 3 in a friendly in November 2017).
• Spain are unbeaten in their last 23 games (W15 D8), the longest current run amongst the 32 teams at the 2018 World Cup.
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• Their last defeat came two years ago against Italy in the round of 16 of the European Championships (0-2, June 2016).
• Since (and including) the 2006 World Cup, Spain have dominated possession in 32 of their 33 games at major tournaments (World Cup + Euro).
• The only exception was in the Euro 2008 final against Germany where they had 46% of the ball.
• This is Russia’s first ever World Cup knockout match since the breakup of the Soviet Union – at major tournaments, they’ve only played in the knockout stages once, reaching the semi-finals of Euro 2008 when they were eliminated by Spain.
• Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, Russia have kept only two clean sheets in their 12 games at the World Cup. Meanwhile, Spain have failed to find the net only once in their last 12 matches in the competition (v Chile, June 2014).
• Russia had just three shots in their last match against Uruguay, the fewest by a host nation in a World Cup match since USA against Brazil in 1994 (3).
• Russia also both won a match by five goals (5-0 v Saudi Arabia) and lost one by three goals (0-3 v Uruguay), the first time that had happened by such margins in a World Cup group stage since 1982, when Hungary won 10-1 against El Salvador but lost 4-1 against Argentina.
• Russia scored eight goals in the group stages despite posting an Expected Goals total of 3.06. This means that they would have been expected to score around three goals based on the quality of their chances.
• If he plays, this will be Andres Iniesta’s 30th game at major tournaments (World Cup + Euro), becoming the third Spanish player to reach that tally after Iker Casillas and Sergio Ramos. He hasn’t converted any of his last 32 shots at the World Cup/Euro, his last goal dating back to the 2010 final against the Netherlands.
• Isco has been directly involved in 12 goals in his last 15 international matches for Spain (10 goals, 2 assists).
• Fyodor Smolov scored two goals against Spain in their encounter last November (3-3), the only game in which he’s found the net more than once for Russia. He’s yet to attempt a single shot in 111 minutes of action at this World Cup.